Deciphering NBA Storylines: Analyzing December's Strength of Schedule Rankings

As we approach the halfway point of December, it is time to reflect on the past week of Emirates NBA Cup Group Play and look ahead to the 30 upcoming games scheduled from Dec. 10-16.

Here’s a schedule breakdown for December, including 25 games that have already been played.

Note 1: To calculate the strength of schedule for the eight teams in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, their second tournament game is imagined as a neutral-site game against an opponent that’s the average (regarding record and where they rank offensively and defensively) of the two teams they could play in the semifinals.

Note 2: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 45-36 (.556) in rest-advantage games, 24-18 (.571) at home and 21-18 (.538) on the road, through Dec. 3.

December strength of schedule

Here’s a look at the December schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

Team

OppPCT

B2B

H | R

1.

Washington

.628

1

8 | 4

2.

Golden State

.605

2

7 | 5

3.

Minnesota

.600

0

5 | 8

4.

New Orleans

.590

4

8 | 5

5.

Miami

.577

4

6 | 7

6.

Toronto

.572

1

9 | 4

7.

Detroit

.566

1

3 | 7

8.

Orlando

.527

2

7 | 5

9.

Brooklyn

.521

2

6 | 6

10.

Utah

.520

1

4 | 8

11.

LA Clippers

.508

2

6 | 6

12.

Indiana

.505

3

4 | 10

13.

Portland

.500

0

7 | 5

14.

Denver

.498

3

5 | 9

15.

Memphis

.498

2

6 | 8

16.

Milwaukee

.497

2

4 | 7

17.

Sacramento

.496

2

9 | 4

18.

Atlanta

.495

1

7 | 4

19.

Los Angles Lakers

.491

1

5 | 8

20.

Dallas

.489

2

5 | 7

21.

Philadelphia

.481

2

5 | 7

22.

Phoenix

.476

2

7 | 6

23.

Chicago

.476

1

7 | 5

24.

Houston

.469

2

5 | 6

25.

Boston

.453

2

10 | 4

26.

San Antonio

.445

1

7 | 7

27.

Oklahoma City

.444

2

5 | 7

28.

Charlotte

.441

2

6 | 6

29.

Cleveland

.427

3

7 | 6

30.

New York

.386

1

7 | 6

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (as of Dec. 3)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes two Nov. 31-Dec. 1 back-to-backs)
H | R = Home games | Road games

Eastern Conference notes

The Hawks have a relatively home-heavy December (seven or eight of 12 games at State Farm Arena), but their longest road trip of the season (six games over 12 days) begins on Dec. 29. Three of their first four December games (including Wednesday in Milwaukee) are rest-advantage games.The Celtics have the league’s most home-heavy December schedule, with 10 of their 14 games at TD Garden. They’re currently two games into their first stretch of five games in seven days, but after that stretch is complete, only one of their final nine December games (Dec. 23 at Orlando) is against a team that currently has a winning record.The Nets are 6-1 against the Western Conference (and 3-12 within the East), so they should be happy that they got one of the two interconference games announced early Wednesday. The game is against the team (Memphis) they’ve beaten twice.The Hornets are playing eight of their 12 December games within the bottom six in the East, with three games against the Sixers (including a six-point loss on Tuesday) and two each against the Bulls and Wizards.The Bulls are 1-7 against the Western Conference but are playing 11 of their 12 December games within the East. The only exception is a game in San Antonio on Thursday.The Cavs are 4-0 against the West but will have some tough interconference tests this month. They’re hosting the Nuggets on Thursday. After Christmas, they’ll embark on a four-game trip with visits to Denver, Golden State, the Lakers and Dallas.The Pistons played a league-high 22 games through November and are the only team with fewer than 12 games this month. They only have 10, with only three of those 10 at home.The Pacers have a seven-game road losing streak and have a league-high 10 road games this month, though that includes two games (losses at Memphis and Toronto) already in the books.The Heat have the East’s second-toughest December schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.577), and they’re the only East team with four back-to-backs in December.The Bucks have the league’s easiest December schedule regarding opposing defenses, with only seven of their 12 games against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 on that end of the floor. That includes two games each against the Bulls and Nets.The Knicks have the league’s easiest December schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage by a wide margin, with 10 of their 14 games against teams that have losing records through Tuesday. That includes two games each against the two teams — New Orleans and Washington — that rank in the bottom three on both ends of the floor. They began the month with a 33-point win over the Pelicans.The Magic have the league’s longest homestand this month, and it could be even longer. Right now, it’s six games over 11 days (Dec. 19-29) and includes two separate visits from the Heat. But if the Magic and Knicks lose in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, the Knicks would play in Orlando on Dec. 15, making that a seven-game homestand.The Sixers have two six-game road trips this season, with the first beginning with their Christmas Day game in Boston and then taking them out West.The Raptors are playing eight of their first nine December games at home, where they’ve won four straight and where RJ Barrett has averaged 30.3 points.Through Nov. 30, the Wizards had played the league’s toughest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage. The relief isn’t coming this month. Ten of their 12 December games are against teams with winning records (and top-10 offenses), their December began with a 31-point loss in Cleveland and they’ll be back at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse next week.

Western Conference notes

The Mavs are one of the hottest teams in the league, having won nine of their last 10 games. That stretch includes a win in Oklahoma City, where they also won two games in the 2024 playoffs. They’ll be back in OKC for the NBA Cup quarterfinals next week.The Nuggets are one of seven teams with three stretches of five games in seven days this season. Their first is Dec. 22-28 and includes a home-and-home set against the Suns, with the second of the two games being their Christmas matchup in Phoenix.The Warriors have three homestands of at least six games this season, with the first (six games over 11 days) beginning Dec. 28 and taking them into the new year. Their game against the Rockets on Thursday is the start of what could be (depending on NBA Cup results) a stretch of seven straight games against teams that currently rank in the top seven defensively (including three games against Minnesota).The Rockets are the only team that hasn’t had a rest-advantage game thus far, and their first isn’t until Dec. 29 when they host the Heat.The Clippers are the only team with no December games against the Eastern Conference (currently 5-1 against the East). From Dec. 19 to Jan. 8, they’ll play eight of 10 games on the road, a stretch that begins with a big, two-game series in Dallas.Nine of the Lakers‘ first 10 December games are against teams currently at or below .500, though that includes a 29-point loss (with a rest disadvantage) in Minnesota on Monday. Fortunately, that was their only back-to-back this month.Through Dec. 26, the Grizzlies will have played 18 of their 31 games at home. But beginning Dec. 27, they’ll play nine of 11 on the road.The Wolves are one of two teams — the Blazers are the other — with no back-to-backs in December, and they have a league-high four rest-advantage games. But they’re the only team with zero December games against teams with losing records through Tuesday. Eleven of their 12 are against teams currently above .500, and they’ll begin a three-game trip against the 11-11 Hawks on Dec. 23.Things aren’t getting any easier for the Pelicans. They have the league’s fourth-toughest December schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with 10 of their 13 games against teams with winning records through Tuesday. They’re also one of two teams — the Heat are the other — with four back-to-backs in December. Their longest homestand of the season (five games over 10 days) runs from Dec. 21-30.The Thunder have the Western Conference’s easiest December schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.444), with only five of their 13 games against teams with winning records through Tuesday. But they’re currently five games into a stretch where they’re playing 10 (or 11, depending on NBA Cup results) of 14 on the road.The Suns were given a generous pair of newly scheduled games — at Utah, vs. Portland — on Wednesday, though they were previously scheduled to play both the Jazz and Blazers only three times. Through Dec. 27, they will have played 17 of their 30 games at home and only twice in the Eastern time zone. So some trips are coming in January and February.The Blazers are one of two teams — the Wolves are the other — with no back-to-backs in December. They have two rest-advantage games this month (the first was a loss on Sunday) and they’re both at home against the Mavs.The Kings are one of five teams with only four road games this month. The new schedule has them taking a one-game trip to New Orleans, but they’ll have three-day breaks both before and after.The Spurs will be the last team to play in the Eastern time zone, doing so for the first time on Dec. 23, when they begin a four-game trip (and a stretch where they’re playing nine of 11 on the road) in Philadelphia.The Jazz‘s loss in Oklahoma City on Tuesday began a stretch where they’re playing eight of nine games on the road. And they’re only home for two games at the end of the month before beginning another trip to start 2025.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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