Noah Rubin's Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds

Identifying value is key in fantasy basketball drafts, but it can be a tricky task. The Rotoworld staff has highlighted a few players they believe are "studs" and "duds" for the upcoming 2024-25 season, pinpointing high- and low-value options expected to be drafted in the early, middle, and late rounds. Next on their radar is Noah Rubin, who is raising some doubts about the performance of the Knicks' starting point guard.

Stud: James Harden

Over the last few seasons, Harden has been part of a few different “big threes.” Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Now? PG and Russell Westbrook are gone, which means a lot of usage just opened up. Tyronn Lue will have to turn to other players to help, but both Harden and Kawhi will have the ball in their hands.

Harden finished just outside the top 25 last season but struggled with his shot down the stretch. He shot 38.5% from the floor over the final two months, which resulted in him barely providing top-75 value in 9-cat leagues during that stretch. Those struggles are worth acknowledging because they show that this isn’t the same Harden, who was a perennial top-10 fantasy player like he was in Houston. However, the opportunity is too good to pass up. He’ll have a chance to be a first-rounder after seeing one of the lowest usage rates of his career last season. Don’t expect the field goal percentage and turnovers to be great, but he’ll have a chance to shine everywhere else.

Dud: Jalen Brunson

Brunson elevated to superstar status late last season, but the roster looks quite different this year. Over the final two months of last season, Brunson averaged 31.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 2.9 threes while shooting 47.4% from the floor. That allowed him to produce second-round value during that stretch. His usage and production took a giant leap forward with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby sidelined.

While Brunson should still be considered among the elite point guards in the NBA after his performance during the playoffs, fantasy managers should be less optimistic. Randle and Anunoby are healthy, and the Knicks added Mikal Bridges to the mix this summer. Tom Thibodeau won’t have any issues playing Brunson a ton of minutes, but his usage will still take a hit. His Yahoo ADP has him going in the late second round, but it feels like his only path to coming close to that level of production is if multiple starters go down due to injury.

Stud: Immanuel Quickley

Was everyone paying attention to what Quickley was doing after joining the Raptors last season? In 38 appearances, he averaged 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.8 triples per game, which allowed him to be a top-75 player in 9-cat leagues. However, he improved all those numbers and finished just outside the top 25 over the final two months of last season, which was an 18-game sample size.

Toronto is healthy heading into this season, but Quickley will still be the team’s starting point guard. His playmaking may be limited while sharing the ball with Scottie Barnes, but he’ll have the ball in his hands enough to make a major impact. His college teammate Tyrese Maxey broke out last season, and now it’s Quickley’s turn. He’s currently being drafted late in the fifth round in Yahoo leagues, which is a fair spot to take him. However, he has the upside to finish much higher in 9-cat leagues, which makes him an excellent value pick at his current ADP.

Dud: LeBron James

Let’s start by acknowledging who we’re talking about. King James has been one of the best players in the league for two decades. Why would anyone think he would slow down now? This isn’t about LeBron finally feeling his age (though that isn’t an impossible scenario). He’s coming off of a season where he played 71 games, his highest total since he left Cleveland. He also played 35.3 minutes per game and was a top-20 player in 9-cat leagues.

However, JJ Redick is his head coach now. With a player who is turning 40 years old this year, Redick will have to manage him to ensure that he is healthy and rested for the playoffs. That should mean fewer games, minutes, and even touches. Leaning on Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell more during the regular season means that James will be fresher for the playoffs, and that’s the goal for this team. LeBron’s Yahoo ADP has him going late in the second round, which would be a best-case scenario for him. There is a good chance that he just isn’t able to return value when drafted that early.

Dud: Grayson Allen

Last season, Allen was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy basketball. He established himself as the fifth starter and Phoenix and had the best season of his career with averages of 13.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.7 threes, all of which were career-highs. He shot 49.9% from the floor and 46.1% from deep, also career-highs. Allen provided fifth-round value in 9-cat scoring formats, though that may have overvalued his well-rounded numbers.

So why shouldn’t managers be as interested in him? It wasn’t that Allen just had the best shooting season of his career, but it was significantly better than any other year. When that happens, those numbers tend to be outliers, not the norm. At least some regression should be expected this year, though it wouldn’t be surprising if his percentages dropped significantly. Also, he played 33.5 minutes per game, which should take a hit this year. The Suns added Tyus Jones with the intent to start him at point guard, which means that Allen should be the odd man out that gets pushed to the bench. A decrease in opportunity and production is a recipe for disaster for a player who shocked the world with his production last year.

Stud: Dyson Daniels

After spending his first two seasons with the Pelicans, Daniels’ situation changed for the better this summer. He was sent to Atlanta as part of the trade package for Dejounte Murray, and his competition for minutes looks quite different. He was sometimes stuck behind CJ McCollum and Herb Jones and split minutes with Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado. In 22.3 minutes per game, he finished just outside the top 150 last season, though most of that production came from his 1.4 steals per game.

Now, he’ll get a fresh start with the Hawks. He’ll have a good chance to start at shooting guard, which should help him play at least 28 minutes per game. That should be enough time for him to be among the league leaders in steals, and he should also be able to chip in some decent rebounds and assists. The main question he’ll have to answer will be on the offensive end. Can he take a step forward as a shooter? Last season, he shot 44.7% from the floor, 31.1% from deep, and 64.2% on free throws. Those are suboptimal numbers, and they’ll stick out even more when he’s playing more minutes. If Daniels can knock down the open 3-pointers that Trae Young creates for him, he’ll have a chance to be elite in fantasy this season.