How India can secure a spot in WTC final despite disappointing home series loss to New Zealand: Exploring all possible scenarios

Despite Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja's valiant efforts in the third and final session on Day 3, New Zealand's victory seemed inevitable after Ashwin (18) was dismissed by Santner. With this win, New Zealand now has a commanding 2-0 lead in the three-match series. This historic victory marks New Zealand's first Test series win in India and their first overseas series win since the inception of the World Test Championship.

New Zealand's win in the second Test means that India's WTC points percentage has dipped from 74 per cent to 62.82 per cent within eight days. India currently has 98 points from 13 matches.

However, Rohit and co still sit at the top of the WTC standings, and India still has a slender lead over second-placed Australia at 62.50.

Despite suffering their first home Test series loss since 2012, India's chances of making it to the WTC final at Lord's Cricket Ground, remain within their grasp. However, if some results go India's way, then it can also aid the team's bid to make it to the final, provided Rohit Sharma and co suffer further slip-ups.

India will next square off against New Zealand in the third Test at the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai. This would be India's last home Test in the ongoing WTC cycle, and after this match, Rohit Sharma and co will travel to Australia for the marquee Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

It is important to mention that apart from India, New Zealand and Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka are also gunning for the WTC final qualification.

If India wants to qualify for the final without depending on others, the side cannot afford to suffer another defeat in their remaining six matches. After losing the second Test against the Kiwis, India can now only afford a maximum of one draw and five wins to finish on a PCT of 71.05.

If the side manages to win all their remaining six Tests, then India would accumulate 170 points at a fabulous PCT of 74.56. However, to achieve this point percentage, India needs to win the final Test against New Zealand and defeat Australia 5-0 Down Under.

A minimum of two wins will keep India in contention, however, then some other results need to go their way. If Rohit Sharma and co want to maintain their PCT over 60, then the side must win at least two Tests and draw four matches.

Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and South Africa are all in with a chance to make it to the final. Sri Lanka has an outside chance if they win all their remaining games and India lose some crucial points along the way. Sri Lanka has four Tests remaining -- two against South Africa away and two against Australia at home in 2025.

South Africa are in the strongest position to make the final. Recently, the Proteas defeated Bangladesh in the first Test and they have one more Test in Bangladesh. South Africa will also play Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home, and if the Proteas win all their games, their PCT would stand at 69.44, leaving India with a task of not conceding another defeat and drawing only one game.

Australia can make it to the WTC final with four wins from their remaining seven Tests -- five at home against India and two against Australia. It is highly unlikely that India and Australia would both make it to the WTC final, despite holding onto the top two spots.

New Zealand have an outside chance of making it to the final, despite registering their first Test series win in India. New Zealand can only finish at a best PCT of 64.28, provided they win their remaining four Tests -- one against India and three against England.

India had made it to the WTC final in 2021 and 2023. Can the side make it to their third final in a row? Only time will tell.